December 16, 2004
Economic armageddon, anyone?

Last month Tyler Cohen threw down a challenge to those painting a gloom and doom scenario for the US economy:

.. The doomsayers are not obviously richer than the rest of us. Many of them (they know who they are!) do not invest on the basis of their gloomy prognoses. And no, buying a house is not enough, I want to see at least five percent of your net worth in puts on T-Bond futures.

While not exactly that, Jeremy Grantham has gone on record on a forum this month as having 10% of his portfolio in S&P shorts.

I have 50% in hedge funds, very cautious ones. Two-thirds are run by [my firm] GMO, one-third outside, 20% in emerging-country equity, 15% in small-cap international equity, 5% in forestry, 10% in foreign bonds. I also have minus 10% in S&P contracts [in other words, he's short]

The complete transcript is here. (It is accessible only to subscribers right now.But it should become available to all by the next fortnight. It is certainly worth reading in its entirety)

In the same panell Milunovich also noted that he is 70% cash and commodities (someone should have asked him - cash in what currencies) But then Milunovich doesnt have the sort of brand equity that Grantham has ....

They managed to scare the hell out of me!

Posted by Kaushik at December 16, 2004 06:02 PM | TrackBack
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